My Wholly Unqualified and Unscientific Oscar Predictions, 2018

For the first time in my life, I’ve seen all of the nominees for Best Picture before the Academy Awards actually take place. I joined MoviePass in late 2017 and have been a movie theater denizen since.

I’m not really a film buff; I’m just taking advantage of MoviePass in a way that probably worries theaters. At just $9.95 a month for a movie a day, MoviePass is likely too good to be true. I predict that the company will shut down before the end of the year, so I’m using it as much as I can while it’s still around.

So my only qualification for making these predictions is that I’ve seen all of the Best Picture nominees. I haven’t seen every movie from 2017, so some of my predictions are still pure guesses. But hey, nobody who reads this blog does so for my movie insights. Enough preamble — here are my Oscar predictions for 2018:

Visual Effects

“Blade Runner 2049” — Winner
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Costume Design

“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water” — Winner
“Victoria and Abdul”

Makeup and Hair

“Darkest Hour” — Winner
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

Original Song

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name” — Winner
“Remember Me” from “Coco”
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall”
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”

Original Score

“Dunkirk” — Winner
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Production Design

“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water” — Winner

Sound Mixing

“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049” — Winner
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Sound Editing

“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049” — Winner
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Film Editing

“Baby Driver” — Winner
“Dunkirk”
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Foreign Language Film

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden) — Winner

Best Live Action Short Film

“DeKalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett” — Winner
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“Edith+Eddie”
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin(e)” — Winner
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”

Best Documentary Feature

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus” — Winner
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

Cinematography

“Blade Runner 2049” — Winner
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Mudbound”
“The Shape of Water”

Original Screenplay

“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — Winner

Adapted Screenplay

“Call Me by Your Name” — Winner
“The Disaster Artist”
“Logan”
“Molly’s Game”
“Mudbound”

Animated Short

“Dear Basketball” — Winner
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”

Animated Feature

“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco” — Winner
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”

Director

“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water” — Winner

Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” — Winner
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — Winner

Lead Actress

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — Winner
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Lead Actor

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread” — Winner
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Best Picture

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — Winner

Bonus

I think the Academy is going to screw up the award for Best Picture. Here’s how I’d rank the nominees:

  1. “Get Out”
  2. “Call Me by Your Name”
  3. “The Shape of Water”
  4. “Phantom Thread”
  5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
  6. “Lady Bird”
  7. “Darkest Hour”
  8. “Dunkirk”
  9. “The Post”
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